The club continues to recruit at levels above replacement, and the number of established members keeps growing in absolute terms, from 307 in 2023 to 348 in 2026, with the established share of the membership holding steady at 52% over the past year after several years of decline. Average age has fallen from 65.4 to 54.3 over the same period. These are encouraging indicators that recent recruitment is beginning to strengthen the club's long-term position.
The principal structural risks now lie elsewhere. Almost four in ten members remain within their first two years of membership, where the majority of resignations occur. Nearly half of these early-tenure members have not yet obtained a handicap, despite handicap attainment being one of the strongest predictors of long-term retention.
Recruitment has made the club markedly younger, although that change has not yet reached the established base, and younger women remain significantly under-represented compared with benchmark clubs. Future success will depend less on attracting large numbers of additional members and more on converting today's recruits into long-term, engaged members.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total members | 491 | 612 | 664 |
| Joiners | 121 | 199 | 148 |
| Leavers | 83 | 78 | 96 |
| Net change | +38 | +121 | +52 |
| Total Churn % | 18% | 16% | 16% |
| Existing Member Churn % | 13% | 9% | 12% |
| Replacement ratio | 1.46× | 2.55× | 1.54× |
On the surface, overall churn held flat at 16%, but that masks a more mixed picture. Recruitment settled back after 2025's exceptional intake, with joiners easing to 148, still well above pre-2025 levels. Leavers rose to 96, up from a two-year low of 78, so 2026's slower growth reflects rising attrition as much as cooling recruitment. The replacement ratio eased to 1.54× but remained comfortably above 1.0×, the level at which joiners simply replace leavers.
Existing Member Churn nonetheless rose from 9% to 12%. Every category improved over the past two years, Age Concession most sharply at 45% to 24%, yet the total worsened because the mix shifted toward shorter-tenure members, who leave at 23% against 5% for those of five years or more. Roughly two-fifths of the rise is that shift; the remainder is second-year churn climbing from 9% to 13% as the 2025 intake aged.
Flexible Membership was the only category showing signs of weakening, with its replacement ratio falling below 1.0×. Junior recruitment, by contrast, remains exceptional despite carrying the highest churn of any category (45% in 2026): the recruitment mix has shifted decisively toward Junior membership, which in 2026 accounted for a growing share of new joiners even as Age Concession's contribution eased.
| Tenure | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 29% | 22% | 23% |
| Year 2 | 25% | 9% | 13% |
| Year 3 | 24% | 6% | 8% |
| Years 4–5 | 11% | 10% | 6% |
| Year 6+ | 5% | 4% | 5% |
Of the members present at the start of each year, the percentage who left during it, grouped by how long they had been members at that point. A member in Year 1 is roughly five times more likely to leave than one in Year 6 or beyond.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early-tenure exp % | 31% | 40% | 38% |
| Same-Year Churn % | 5% | 7% | 4% |
New member retention is this report's biggest structural challenge. Early-tenure exposure, the share of members still inside the window where most departures happen, has risen from 31% in 2024 to 38%, having peaked at 40% in 2025. Under a third of joiners are still present after five years.
The clearest differentiators are handicap status and Age Concession membership. Members holding a handicap retain at 90% after one year and 50% after five, against 6% for those who never do, the sharpest gap in this report. Age Concession is as stark: five-year retention collapses to 2%, the weakest of any category, though this segment retains worse everywhere, not just here. The trend within it is the more useful number, with same-year churn down from 28% to 7% in two years. Handicap status is best read as a marker of engagement, not a cause of retention.
Retention also varies by category and gender. Flexible, not Full, delivers the strongest long-term outcome, 58% at five years against 39%. Junior retention cannot be read reliably beyond three years, too few have been members that long, though its churn has eased from 50% to 22%. Women retain far better than men at every milestone, 62% against 27% at five years.
| Milestone | No Handicap | Other Members |
|---|---|---|
| 12 months | 59% | 90% |
| 24 months | 28% | 79% |
| 36 months | 13% | 66% |
| 48 months | 11% | 54% |
| 60 months | 6% | 50% |
Calculated from the full member history (Jul 2018–Jun 2026), excluding juniors. Full breakdown shown on the New Member Retention page.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Early-tenure No handicap % | 29% | 38% | 47% |
| Established No handicap % | 5% | 4% | 3% |
Early-tenure members without a handicap have grown every year since 2023, from 34 to 117, and from 28% to 47% of that group. Established members without one have moved the other way, from 18 to 10, just 3% of their group. The newest members are engaging with organised golf less than they used to, though that may partly reflect more of them being new to the game, while those who stay remain almost universally engaged.
Two forces explain the shift. The first is timing: participation sits between 68% and 76% across the first three years, then rises to 98% once members pass three years and stays there. Engagement resolves later than the early-tenure figures suggest, so much of that group has simply not reached the point where participation settles. The second and larger force is composition. Juniors are 59% of the early-tenure no-handicap group and participate at just 23%, against 97% for Full members. Strip them out and adult engagement is stable at 88%. This is a shift in membership mix, not a decline in engagement.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Established members per early-tenure member | 2.01 | 1.32 | 1.39 |
| Established membership % | 62% | 52% | 52% |
| Average member tenure | 8.8 yrs | 7.6 yrs | 7.5 yrs |
| Early-tenure exposure | 31% | 40% | 38% |
| Established members (n) | 306 | 320 | 348 |
| Early-tenure members (n) | 152 | 242 | 250 |
| Total members | 491 | 612 | 664 |
Established members per early-tenure member = the number of members with 36+ months’ tenure for every member still inside the higher-risk first two years.
The base is growing and the club is replacing departing members, just not at matching speed. Total membership rose 47% between 2023 and 2026, from 453 to 664, while the established base grew 13%, from 307 to 348.
The decline has levelled off, not accelerated. Established membership fell sharply through 2024 and 2025, from 62% to 52%, then held steady at 52% in 2026, the first year it hasn't fallen further. Early-tenure exposure shows a similar pattern: up from 27% to 40% by 2025, then down slightly to 38%. Established members per early-tenure member fell from 2.01 to 1.32 between 2024 and 2025, then rose to 1.39 in 2026, its first improvement since 2023.
The category breakdown shows who is currently long-tenured, not who retains well. Full (71%) and Flexible (57%) score highest; Age Concession (15%) and Junior (4%) lowest, partly from recent recruitment not yet aged into the established base and partly from higher turnover. Retention data on the New Member Retention page separates the two: Junior's three-year retention is 35%, so its low share is mostly timing. Age Concession's is 12%, so its low share is not — those members are genuinely leaving before three years, and the club recruits heavily through the category.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average age | 62.3 | 55.9 | 54.3 |
| % Juniors (<18) | 5% | 11% | 14% |
| % 18–39 | 10% | 17% | 17% |
| % 40–55 | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| % 55–70 | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| % 70+ | 44% | 39% | 38% |
| Established members 18–55 | 19 | 27 | 47 |
The profile is shifting on two timescales: younger where new members join, older where the base sits. Average age has fallen from 65.4 to 54.3 since 2023, but only 21 members aged 18–39 have reached three years' tenure, against 218 established members aged 70+. The club looks younger because of who is joining, not who has stayed.
The pipeline is real but fragile. 91 members aged 18–39 are not yet established, more than four times the number who are. They are also the least likely to stay: 21% of members aged 18–39 left during the year, against 7% of 40–55s and 5% of the over-70s. The 18–39 share plateaued in 2026 at 17%, after three years of sharp growth. The established base won't shift until far more of this group ages in, which will take years regardless.
Against the county benchmark the club skews old: 70+ make up 38% against a 26% benchmark, while 40–55 (9%) and 55–70 (23%) sit well below. The established base shows it most starkly: 63% is aged 70+, down from 65% only because the base is growing across all bands, not shrinking at the top. The risk isn't that younger members aren't joining, it's that too few stay long enough to shift its age profile.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female share of membership | 23.8% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| Female avg age | 70.9 | 71.7 | 69.0 |
| Female replacement ratio | 1.36× | 0.90× | 1.78× |
| Female members (n) | 117 | 116 | 123 |
| Female joiners | 15 | 9 | 16 |
| Female leavers | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Female members aged 18–55 (n) | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Established, aged 18–55 (n) | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Replacement ratio = female joiners ÷ female leavers each year.
This was the club's strongest year for female recruitment in four years: joiners nearly doubled to 16 against 9 leavers, a replacement ratio of 1.78×. That is a recruitment gain rather than a change in the age profile, which is examined below. Female membership grew to 123, but that lifted the female share only to 18.5%, still down from 24.9% in 2023, because the rest of the club is growing faster.
None of it has reached the established base. Three female members are under 55, unchanged for three years, and none now has three or more years' tenure, down from one in each of the two previous years. That segment has not grown, it has quietly disappeared. Average female age fell from 71.7 to 69.0, but that owes more to the junior intake than to adult women joining: only six female members are under 18.
Against the county benchmark the skew is stark. 70+ members are 62% of female membership against a 45% benchmark, 55–70 sits ten points under, and the under-55 bands are barely populated: one member aged 18–39 against roughly five expected, two aged 40–55 against nine. Recruitment is no longer the constraint. Until that intake is retained long enough to reach the established base, the female profile will keep ageing even as headcount grows.
- Membership grew 8% this year and the replacement ratio is a healthy 1.54×, but that ratio has already fallen sharply from 2.55× a year ago.
- This growth is currently masking weaker retention and stability elsewhere in the club.
- If recruitment slows even slightly, those gaps would show up quickly across several dimensions at once.
- Only 44% of new members are still there three years after joining, and 38% of the membership is still within its first two years.
- Age Concession members retain worst of all: just 12% still there after 36 months, the weakest of any category. Almost all of them are aged 18–33, so this is largely the same group of people that makes the 18–39 age band the fastest-churning in the club.
- This is the single biggest improvement opportunity in the near term.
- 47% of early-tenure members don't have a handicap, up from 28% in 2023, the fastest-worsening metric in the report.
- Members without a handicap retain far worse: 28% at 24 months, versus 79% for those with one.
- As early-tenure members become a bigger share of the club, this is the leading risk heading into the 2026–27 renewal cycle.
- The established share of membership has fallen from 62% to 52% since 2024, though the decline is levelling off, established members per early-tenure member improved in 2026 for the first time since 2023.
- The established base is still growing in absolute numbers, from 307 in 2023 to 348 in 2026.
- But recruitment is outpacing conversion into the established base, so its share keeps easing.
- Members aged 70+ make up 63% of the established base, down slightly from 65% a year earlier.
- Only 14% of established members are aged 18–55.
- As the oldest members naturally decline, the club faces long-term contraction unless younger members convert into established, long-term members at much higher rates than today.
- Female membership is 18.5% of the club, with an average age of 69.0.
- 76% of established female members are 70+, and none under 55 have yet reached three years' tenure.
- Recruitment isn't the problem: 2026's 1.78× replacement ratio is the strongest in four years, but that intake hasn't had time to convert into the established base yet.
- Without repeat years like 2026, the female base will keep ageing even as headcount grows.
- The widest retention gap in this report sits in the first two years of membership, and it tracks engagement: members holding a handicap remain at 79% to 24 months, against 28% for those who do not. Handicap participation is a marker of engagement with organised golf rather than a measure to be raised in its own right.
- The 18–39 band retains least well of any age band, at 30% to 36 months. Recruitment into it is not the constraint: 69 of its 112 members are in their first two years. The constraint is how few reach the established base.
- Growth currently rests on recruitment volume rather than conversion. The established base has grown in absolute terms, from 307 to 348, while its share has fallen from 62% to 52% since 2024, because recruitment is outpacing the rate at which members convert into it.
- Female recruitment strengthened materially in 2026, to a replacement ratio of 1.78×, the strongest in four years, but none of that intake has yet reached the established base and the under-55 female pipeline remains at three members.
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Churn % | 13% | 16% | +3pp | |
| Replacement ratio | 2.00× | 1.54× | −0.46 | |
| Total members | 691 | 664 | −27 | |
| Joiners | 159 | 148 | −11 | |
| Leavers | 78 | 96 | +18 |
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12M retention — Overall | 78% | 79% | +1pp | |
| 12M retention — Handicap | 93% | 91% | −2pp | |
| 12M retention — No handicap | 58% | 67% | +9pp | |
| 24M retention — Overall | 53% | 59% | +6pp | |
| 24M retention — Handicap | 77% | 82% | +5pp | |
| 24M retention — No handicap | 29% | 31% | +2pp |
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early-tenure no-handicap % | 48% | 47% | −1pp | |
| No-handicap members (n) | 153 | 142 | −11 |
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early-tenure exposure % | 43% | 38% | −5pp | |
| Established membership % | 50% | 52% | +2pp | |
| Established members per early-tenure member | 1.20 | 1.39 | +0.22 |
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40–55 members | 52 | 59 | +7 | |
| Average age | 53.6 | 54.3 | +0.7 |
| Indicator | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female members <55 | 2 | 3 | +1 | |
| Female share of membership | 18.1% | 18.5% | +0.4pp | |
| Female average age | 70.2 | 69.0 | −1.2 | |
| Female replacement ratio | 1.08× | 1.78× | +0.69 |
- Recruitment cooled and attrition rose, echoing the Recruitment & Replacement page: joiners fell from 159 to 148, leavers rose from 78 to 96, and total membership settled back from 691 to 664 as the renewal cycle worked through. The replacement ratio eased from 2.00× to 1.54×.
- Retention improved across the board. No-handicap members saw the sharpest gain, up 9pp at 12 months and 2pp at 24 months, though they remain the weakest-retaining group by far. Handicap holders' 12-month rate eased slightly (93% to 91%) while their 24-month figure improved.
- Stability strengthened too: early-tenure exposure fell, the established membership share rose, and established members per early-tenure member improved.
- Average age ticked up slightly within the quarter (53.6 to 54.3), a minor blip against the multi-year downward trend. The 40–55 band grew from 52 members to 59, though its share of the club is unchanged.
- The female pipeline strengthened further: replacement ratio up from 1.08× to 1.78×, membership share up to 18.5%, and average age down to 69.0.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total members | 453 | 491 | 612 | 664 |
| Joiners | 89 | 121 | 199 | 148 |
| Leavers | 99 | 83 | 78 | 96 |
| Net change | −10 | +38 | +121 | +52 |
| Churn % | 21% | 18% | 16% | 16% |
| Replacement ratio | 0.90× | 1.46× | 2.55× | 1.54× |
| Established members (3+ yrs) | 307 | 306 | 320 | 348 |
| Developing (2–3 yrs) | 25 | 33 | 50 | 66 |
| Early-tenure (<2 yrs) | 121 | 152 | 242 | 250 |
| Established membership % | 68% | 62% | 52% | 52% |
| Early-tenure exposure % | 27% | 31% | 40% | 38% |
| Avg member tenure (yrs) | 9.2 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| Type | Total | Established | Early | Joiners | Leavers | Rep. ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full | 380 | 271 | 82 | 45 | 26 | 1.73× |
| Flexible | 75 | 43 | 22 | 9 | 11 | 0.82× |
| Age Concession | 97 | 15 | 63 | 34 | 29 | 1.17× |
| Junior | 94 | 4 | 83 | 60 | 28 | 2.14× |
| On Hold | 18 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| Total | 664 | 348 | 250 | 148 | 96 | 1.54× |
| Segment | 12M | 24M | 36M | 48M | 60M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 78% | 58% | 44% | 36% | 32% |
| Other members | 90% | 79% | 66% | 54% | 50% |
| No handicap | 62% | 29% | 14% | 13% | 7% |
| Female | 87% | 71% | 63% | 61% | 62% |
| Male | 77% | 56% | 42% | 33% | 27% |
| Metric | 2026 |
|---|---|
| Overall handicap % (excl. juniors) | 88% |
| Early-tenure No handicap % | 47% |
| Early-tenure No handicap (n) | 117 |
| Established No handicap (n) | 10 |
| Established No handicap % | 3% |
| 24M retention — Other members | 79% |
| 24M retention — No handicap | 29% |
| No handicap by type — Age Concession | 36 |
| No handicap by type — Flexible | 21 |
| No handicap by type — Full | 13 |
| No handicap by type — Junior | 72 |
| No handicap — Total (all types) | 142 |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female members (n) | 113 | 117 | 116 | 123 |
| Female % | 24.9% | 23.8% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| Female avg age | 70.5 | 70.9 | 71.7 | 69.0 |
| Female <55 (n) | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Female joiners | 10 | 15 | 9 | 16 |
| Female leavers | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Female churn % | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% |
| Female replacement ratio | 0.77× | 1.36× | 0.90× | 1.78× |
| Female established 40–55 (n) | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Female established 55–70 (n) | 27 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| Female established 70+ (n) | 63 | 67 | 71 | 70 |
| Age band | All members (n) | All members % | Established (n) | Established % | Developing (n) | Early-tenure (n) | Early % | Benchmark % | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juniors | 94 | 14% | 4 | 1% | 7 | 83 | 33% | 5% | +9% |
| 18–39 | 112 | 17% | 21 | 6% | 22 | 69 | 28% | 19% | −2% |
| 40–55 | 59 | 9% | 26 | 7% | 8 | 25 | 10% | 15% | −6% |
| 55–70 | 150 | 23% | 79 | 23% | 20 | 51 | 20% | 35% | −12% |
| 70+ | 249 | 38% | 218 | 63% | 9 | 22 | 9% | 26% | +12% |
| Avg age | 54.3 (↓ from 65.4 in 2023) | — | — | — | |||||
| Age band | Female (n) | Female % | Male (n) | Male % | Female benchmark % | Female variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–39 | 1 | 1% | 111 | 25% | 4% | −3% |
| 40–55 | 2 | 2% | 57 | 13% | 7% | −5% |
| 55–70 | 38 | 31% | 112 | 25% | 41% | −10% |
| 70+ | 76 | 62% | 173 | 38% | 45% | +17% |
| Adult total | 117 | 95% | 453 | 100% | — | — |
| Juniors (<18) | 6 | 5% | 88 | — | 3% | +2% |
| All members | 123 | 100% | 541 | — | — | — |
Basis of measurement. Each milestone is measured on every member who has reached it: the 12-month figure includes members who joined a year ago, while the 60-month figure necessarily covers only those who joined five or more years ago. This is a deliberate choice. It keeps the earlier milestones responsive to current recruitment, rather than reporting only on members who joined some years ago and missing recent change. Because the milestones therefore rest on overlapping but not identical groups of members, a figure can occasionally rise where a later group has retained better than an earlier one.
Validation. To confirm that this basis does not distort the shape of the curve, it has been tested against a single fixed group — the 269 members who joined between July 2018 and July 2021, all of whom have now completed five years of possible membership. Measured on that one unchanging group, the curve reads 81%, 57%, 41%, 35% and 32% at the five milestones, tracking the published curve within three percentage points at every point. The shape therefore reflects genuine retention behaviour rather than differences between the groups measured at each milestone.
Minimum group size. A milestone resting on fewer than ten members is not reported, and is shown as —.
This report is based on the membership data supplied by the participating club and the BirdieIQ analytical framework in use at the date of preparation.
The findings and observations represent an interpretation of historic membership patterns and benchmark comparisons. They are intended to support strategic discussion and decision-making and should be considered alongside the club management's knowledge of local circumstances and operational factors. BirdieIQ sets out what the membership data shows; decisions on what action to take rest with the club.
While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the analysis, BirdieIQ accepts no liability for decisions made solely on the basis of this report. Forecasts, structural assessments and benchmark comparisons are indicative and do not constitute guarantees of future membership performance.
This report is confidential and prepared exclusively for the participating club. It may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part without the prior written consent of BirdieIQ.
BirdieIQ analyses observed membership behaviour and structural patterns. It identifies probabilities and trends, not certainties. Its purpose is to improve the quality of strategic decision-making by making previously hidden patterns visible.
© BirdieIQ. The BirdieIQ methodology, Lifecycle Curve framework, report structure and analytical concepts are proprietary intellectual property and may not be reproduced or adapted without permission.